Distributional Reinforcement Learning (RL) differs from traditional RL in that, rather than the expectation of total returns, it estimates distributions and has achieved state-of-the-art performance on Atari Games. The key challenge in practical distributional RL algorithms lies in how to parameterize estimated distributions so as to better approximate the true continuous distribution.

Risk-averse Constrained Reinforcement Learning (RaCRL) aims to learn policies that minimise the likelihood of rare and catastrophic constraint violations caused by an environment's inherent randomness. In general, risk-aversion leads to conservative exploration of the environment which typically results in converging to sub-optimal policies that fail to adequately maximise reward or, in some cases, fail to achieve the goal. In this paper, we propose an exploration-based approach for RaCRL called Optimistic Risk-averse Actor Critic (ORAC), which constructs an exploratory policy by maximising a local upper confidence bound of the state-action reward value function whilst minimising a local lower confidence bound of the risk-averse state-action cost value function. Specifically, at each step, the weighting assigned to the cost value is increased or decreased if it exceeds or falls below the safety constraint value. This way the policy is encouraged to explore uncertain regions of the environment to discover high reward states whilst still satisfying the safety constraints. Our experimental results demonstrate that the ORAC approach prevents convergence to sub-optimal policies and improves significantly the reward-cost trade-off in various continuous control tasks such as Safety-Gymnasium and a complex building energy management environment CityLearn.

Implicit Quantile BART (IQ-BART) posits a non-parametric Bayesian model on the conditional quantile function, acting as a model over a conditional model for $Y$ given $X$. One of the key ingredients is augmenting the observed data $\{(Y_i,X_i)\}_{i=1}^n$ with uniformly sampled values $τ_i$ for $1\leq i\leq n$ which serve as training data for quantile function estimation. Using the fact that the location parameter $μ$ in a $τ$-tilted asymmetric Laplace distribution corresponds to the $τ^{th}$ quantile, we build a check-loss likelihood targeting $μ$ as the parameter of interest. We equip the check-loss likelihood parametrized by $μ=f(X,τ)$ with a BART prior on $f(\cdot)$, allowing the conditional quantile function to vary both in $X$ and $τ$. The posterior distribution over $μ(τ,X)$ can be then distilled for estimation of the {\em entire quantile function} as well as for assessing uncertainty through the variation of posterior draws. Simulation-based predictive inference is immediately available through inverse transform sampling using the learned quantile function. The sum-of-trees structure over the conditional quantile function enables flexible distribution-free regression with theoretical guarantees. As a byproduct, we investigate posterior mean quantile estimator as an alternative to the routine sample (posterior mode) quantile estimator. We demonstrate the power of IQ-BART on time series forecasting datasets where IQ-BART can capture multimodality in predictive distributions that might be otherwise missed using traditional parametric approaches.

Probabilistic forecasting in power systems often involves multi-entity datasets like households, feeders, and wind turbines, where generating reliable entity-specific forecasts presents significant challenges. Traditional approaches require training individual models for each entity, making them inefficient and hard to scale. This study addresses this problem using GUIDE-VAE, a conditional variational autoencoder that allows entity-specific probabilistic forecasting using a single model. GUIDE-VAE provides flexible outputs, ranging from interpretable point estimates to full probability distributions, thanks to its advanced covariance composition structure. These distributions capture uncertainty and temporal dependencies, offering richer insights than traditional methods. To evaluate our GUIDE-VAE-based forecaster, we use household electricity consumption data as a case study due to its multi-entity and highly stochastic nature. Experimental results demonstrate that GUIDE-VAE outperforms conventional quantile regression techniques across key metrics while ensuring scalability and versatility. These features make GUIDE-VAE a powerful and generalizable tool for probabilistic forecasting tasks, with potential applications beyond household electricity consumption.

Recent advancements in Distributional Reinforcement Learning (DRL) for modeling loss distributions have shown promise in developing hedging strategies in derivatives markets. A common approach in DRL involves learning the quantiles of loss distributions at specified levels using Quantile Regression (QR). This method is particularly effective in option hedging due to its direct quantile-based risk assessment, such as Value at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR). However, these risk measures depend on the accurate estimation of extreme quantiles in the loss distribution's tail, which can be imprecise in QR-based DRL due to the rarity and extremity of tail data, as highlighted in the literature. To address this issue, we propose EXtreme DRL (EX-DRL), which enhances extreme quantile prediction by modeling the tail of the loss distribution with a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). This method introduces supplementary data to mitigate the scarcity of extreme quantile observations, thereby improving estimation accuracy through QR. Comprehensive experiments on gamma hedging options demonstrate that EX-DRL improves existing QR-based models by providing more precise estimates of extreme quantiles, thereby improving the computation and reliability of risk metrics for complex financial risk management.

Vision-based inspection algorithms have significantly contributed to quality control in industrial settings, particularly in addressing structural defects like dent and contamination which are prevalent in mass production. Extensive research efforts have led to the development of related benchmarks such as MVTec AD (Bergmann et al., 2019). However, in industrial settings, there can be instances of logical defects, where acceptable items are found in unsuitable locations or product pairs do not match as expected. Recent methods tackling logical defects effectively employ knowledge distillation to generate difference maps. Knowledge distillation (KD) is used to learn normal data distribution in unsupervised manner. Despite their effectiveness, these methods often overlook the potential false negatives. Excessive similarity between the teacher network and student network can hinder the generation of a suitable difference map for logical anomaly detection. This technical report provides insights on handling potential false negatives by utilizing a simple constraint in KD-based logical anomaly detection methods. We select EfficientAD as a state-of-the-art baseline and apply a margin-based constraint to its unsupervised learning scheme. Applying this constraint, we can improve the AUROC for MVTec LOCO AD by 1.3 %.

This paper introduces PG-Rainbow, a novel algorithm that incorporates a distributional reinforcement learning framework with a policy gradient algorithm. Existing policy gradient methods are sample inefficient and rely on the mean of returns when calculating the state-action value function, neglecting the distributional nature of returns in reinforcement learning tasks. To address this issue, we use an Implicit Quantile Network that provides the quantile information of the distribution of rewards to the critic network of the Proximal Policy Optimization algorithm. We show empirical results that through the integration of reward distribution information into the policy network, the policy agent acquires enhanced capabilities to comprehensively evaluate the consequences of potential actions in a given state, facilitating more sophisticated and informed decision-making processes. We evaluate the performance of the proposed algorithm in the Atari-2600 game suite, simulated via the Arcade Learning Environment (ALE).

Distributional Reinforcement Learning (RL) estimates return distribution mainly by learning quantile values via minimizing the quantile Huber loss function, entailing a threshold parameter often selected heuristically or via hyperparameter search, which may not generalize well and can be suboptimal. This paper introduces a generalized quantile Huber loss function derived from Wasserstein distance (WD) calculation between Gaussian distributions, capturing noise in predicted (current) and target (Bellman-updated) quantile values. Compared to the classical quantile Huber loss, this innovative loss function enhances robustness against outliers. Notably, the classical Huber loss function can be seen as an approximation of our proposed loss, enabling parameter adjustment by approximating the amount of noise in the data during the learning process. Empirical tests on Atari games, a common application in distributional RL, and a recent hedging strategy using distributional RL, validate the effectiveness of our proposed loss function and its potential for parameter adjustments in distributional RL. The implementation of the proposed loss function is available here.

We are motivated by quantile estimation of algae concentration in lakes and how decentralized multirobot teams can effectively tackle this problem. We find that multirobot teams improve performance in this task over single robots, and communication-enabled teams further over communication-deprived teams; however, real robots are resource-constrained, and communication networks cannot support arbitrary message loads, making naive, constant information-sharing but also complex modeling and decision-making infeasible. With this in mind, we propose online, locally computable metrics for determining the utility of transmitting a given message to the other team members and a decision-theoretic approach that chooses to transmit only the most useful messages, using a decentralized and independent framework for maintaining beliefs of other teammates. We validate our approach in simulation on a real-world aquatic dataset, and we show that restricting communication via a utility estimation method based on the expected impact of a message on future teammate behavior results in a 42% decrease in network load while simultaneously decreasing quantile estimation error by 1.84%.

Anomalies refer to the departure of systems and devices from their normal behaviour in standard operating conditions. An anomaly in an industrial device can indicate an upcoming failure, often in the temporal direction. In this paper, we make two contributions: 1) we estimate conditional quantiles and consider three different ways to define anomalies based on the estimated quantiles. 2) we use a new learnable activation function in the popular Long Short Term Memory networks (LSTM) architecture to model temporal long-range dependency. In particular, we propose Parametric Elliot Function (PEF) as an activation function (AF) inside LSTM, which saturates lately compared to sigmoid and tanh. The proposed algorithms are compared with other well-known anomaly detection algorithms, such as Isolation Forest (iForest), Elliptic Envelope, Autoencoder, and modern Deep Learning models such as Deep Autoencoding Gaussian Mixture Model (DAGMM), Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN). The algorithms are evaluated in terms of various performance metrics, such as Precision and Recall. The algorithms have been tested on multiple industrial time-series datasets such as Yahoo, AWS, GE, and machine sensors. We have found that the LSTM-based quantile algorithms are very effective and outperformed the existing algorithms in identifying anomalies.